Week 4 College Football Picks

Three weeks into the season and we are already 8 games over .500.  Not bad.  As we learn more about the teams and players making noise in 2018, that number will rise.  This week we have a full slate of 17 games that we are picking, but before diving in, lets take a quick glance at last weeks picks.

Hawaii +7 @ Army (Push)

Syracuse +3 vs. Florida State (Win)

LSU +9 @ Auburn (Win)

Northern Illinois -14 vs. Central Michigan (Loss)

Buffalo -5 vs. Eastern Michigan (Win)

Ole Miss +20.5 vs. Alabama (Loss)

Missouri -7 @ Purdue (Loss)

Oregon -41 vs. San Jose State (Loss)

Wisconsin -22 vs. BYU (Loss)

Maryland -15.5 vs. Temple (Loss)

Oklahoma State -2.5 vs. Boise State (Win)

TCU +13 vs. Ohio State (Win)

Arkansas State -1 @ Tulsa (Win)

Week 3 Record: 6-6-1

Overall Record: 24-16-1

Week 4 is upon on and here are the picks:

FAU @ UCF Over 77: Yes 77 is an insanely high number and you actually need a score like 44-33 to just push that.  But look at what these teams do in lighting up the scoreboard.  FAU, outside of their opening week loss to Alabama, has scored 33 and 49 points.  They have also allowed 63, 27 and 28 points.  The 63 was of course Alabama, but the UCF offense is much more potent than Air Force or Bethune Cookman.  On the UCF side, they put up 56 against UConn and 38 against South Carolina State, in a game they played sloppy.  With the Friday night lights lit, this screams of a fantasy and points bonanza.

Iowa State -18.5 vs. Akron: Yes Akron is 2-0 and Iowa State is 0-2, however Iowa State has yet to establish the potent offense that they are capable of.  They did put up 27 points against Oklahoma and only lost the game by 10, and that to me is a good sign.  Give me the Cyclones to pick up their first win of the season and blow out Akron.

Buffalo -6 @ Rutgers: I simply do not get this line.  Yes, Rutgers is a power five conference team.  Yes, Rutgers is at home.  But Buffalo has yet to score less than 35 points in a game, has a prolific passing attack and Rutgers is coming off back to back losses that saw them give up 50+ points.  Yes, one of those games was against Ohio State, but the other was against….KANSAS!  Give me Buffalo.

Ole Miss -28.5 vs. Kent State: Ole Miss is not as bad as the lopsided blowout they suffered against Alabama last week.  They also possess a potent offense led by Jordan Ta’amu, who has plenty of weapons at his disposal.  Kent State on the other hand just gave up 63 points to Penn State, who has an offense on par with the Rebels.  Ole Miss rolls here big.

Georgia -14.5 @ Missouri:  This is one of my favorite games of the weekend.  I cannot wait to see Drew Lock and the Tigers offense battle the Dawgs stout defense.  The Bulldogs have given up a total of 24 points all season, while Missouri has yet to score less than 40 in a game.  To me, it is all about the Bulldogs defense.  They can control the ball with their rushing game, Jake Fromm does not make many mistakes and considering his performance in the national title game last season as a true freshman, the road atmosphere in Columbia will not be a problem.  Mizzou keeps it close, but Georgia pulls away in the 4th quarter.

Miami Ohio -5 @ Bowling Green: The Miami offense has looked heinous in their last two games, scoring a grand total of 3 points.  But that was against Cincinnati and Minnesota, not Bowling Green, who has 58, 45 and 35 points.  Those 35 points were against Eastern Washington.  Miami has the best player on the field in James Gardner and despite being on the road, give me them to cover the 5 points.

Ohio State -35 vs. Tulane: Tulane has no shot in this game.  Forget the Buckeyes offense which scores at will. You know Urban Meyer is taking no prisoners this week in his first game back from suspension.  This has 63-0 written all over it.  Despite Tulane being improved, this will be a rout, with the backups like Tate Martel playing for Ohio State early in the second half.

Baylor -7 vs. Kansas: Baylor is coming off a disappointing loss to Duke, while Kansas has actually won two games for the first time since the Clinton administration (or so it seems).  And just think, if they did not lose to Nicholls State in their opener, they would be 3-0.  But give me the Bears at home.  Kansas has beaten Rutgers and Central Michigan.  Not anyone with the offensive muscle like Baylor.  Give me the Bears and a hunch, as Kansas winning 3 in a row just simply would tilt the world off its axis.

San Diego State -10.5 vs. Eastern Michigan: Another head scratcher line for me.  Yes, Eastern Michigan won at Purdue, but then again, so has Northwestern (who has lost two games since) and Missouri.  They also just lost to Buffalo and gave up 35 points.  Now they fly cross country to face the Aztecs who are 2-1 and just knocked off Arizona State, who was ranked 23rd at the time.  The best player on the field is Aztecs back Juwan Washington who should run at will.  If Buffalo beat EMU by 7, considering the rugged defense San Diego State plays, the 10.5 points here seems extremely reasonable.

Virginia Tech -27.5 @ Old Dominion: ODU ranks 118th in the country by allowing over 480 yards per game to the opponent.  They lost to Liberty…yes LIBERTY, by 42 points.  Give me the Hokies in this one by just as many points if not more.

TCU -3 @ Texas: What kind of team is Texas?  The one that lost to Maryland or the one that beat USC?  TCU on the other hand is coming off a game in which they hung with Ohio State for a bit, before losing (but covered the spread).  To me, the Horned Frogs, despite playing on the road, have the edge.  They have too much talent and will go to school on what Maryland did to the Longhorns in the opener.

North Texas -13.5 @ Liberty: North Texas is one of my favorite teams in the country as they always cover.  With Mason Fine, Jalen Guyton and Rico Bussey Jr., they have three stud offensive playmakers, which has led them to a 3-0 record with impressive wins against SMU, Incarnate Word and Arkansas.  When any non powe-five teams goes into an SEC stadium and romps to the tune of 44-17, it is time to take notice.  Fine is fine and will continue to shine.  Give me North Texas here by 3 touchdowns.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State Over 77.5: Last week, Texas Tech threw for over 600 yards…in one game…against Houston and Ed Oliver.  They have scored 77 and 63 points the last two weeks.  Toss in the Cowboys, who have won by an average of 33 points, including a beat down of Boise State last week and this has point fiasco all over it.  I think both offenses show up, the defenses stay at home and we get ourselves a 45-40 content.

Arkansas State -7 vs. UNLV: Much like Mason Fine, Justice Hansen is one of the small school quarterbacks who will be getting a look at the next level.  The dual threat signal-caller is a prolific playmaker who has already accounted for 8 touchdowns and is averaging almost 5 yards per carry.  UNLV did throttle UTEP and Prairie View A&M, however were blown out by USC.  Arkansas State, who is surely not USC, can put up points in bunches.  That is why they roll here by 10+.

Oklahoma -31.5 vs. Army: Much respect to the Cadets who shut down Hawaii and limited them to 21 points last week.  But to me, that was a lot more about the Rainbow Warriors flying 12 hours to the east coast than it was Army’s play.  Army has also not chance against the skill position players of the Sooners.  Murray, Sermon, Anderson and Lamb will be too much and the defense will swarm Army.  Oklahoma 52-3 sounds about right.

Oregon +2.5 vs. Stanford: One of the games of the week.  Despite not playing with Bryce Love last week, the Cardinal should not have struggled as much as they did against UC-Davis.  K.J. Costello threw some picks, Cameron Scarlett struggled to get going on the ground, however they won.  Oregon now welcomes them to the Pacific Northwest, where they have yet to score less than 35 points this season and have yet to leave their home turf.  Justin Herbert is a likely top 10 NFL pick and if you are giving me points, I will surely take them.  Oregon wins outright, 32-25.

As a reminder, check out the Fantasy Forum for all game picks, fantasy advise, breaking news and for the All-Out Blitz show every Sunday morning at 11:45am ET.

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