Predicting the Most Likely to Succeed From the 2018 NFL Draft

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Every football player picked in the draft has the idea that they belong, that they made it, that they are living the dream.  Every football fan hopes and prays that the player drafted by their particular team turns into a perennial Pro Bowler or All Pro player.  That’s the idea at least.  Obviously, it’s not always the case that every pick pans out or turns into that kind of player but hope still flies.

It seems that there is an endless amount of information for mock drafts where “experts” guess where a player is picked and “insiders” who have been told which team is going to pick which player.

But, really, how will a player do once they are on the field?  After all the draft is full of a lot of unknowns and maybe he will or won’t work out, in terms of success, in the NFL.  So many questions…  Who will be that Pro Bowl player?  Who is the player that will save my most beloved of teams?  Which quarterback is going to be “The Next Tom Brady?”  Which defensive back will make his own island?  What’s the name of the defensive end who will end up with 2 or 3 sacks seemingly every game?  The reality is Patriots fans just want to know if they can just clone Tom Brady.

Only time will tell.

BUT, you want answers and NEVER FEAR you who wants answers!  I have the solution, I have the answers to your doubts, fears, and concerns…or so I think.  I came up with a ridiculous system of augmenting numbers and compartmentalizing totals.   It may sound silly, but after I put in the amount of work I did, I promise you my predictions may be just as absurd as I feel they are.  However, the odds are in my favor!  

How my math works:  Games Played + Bonus points = Total.  For each draft class, I looked at the first 100 picked.  Then I looked at all the players in the particular class and arranged them from most to least games played selecting only the top 100 from that list.  If a player was in the top 100 for games played I added 2 bonus points.  If a player was a Pro Bowler I added 5 points.  Finally, if a player was in the top 100 for games played and a Pro Bowler I added 10 Points.  Not every player selected within the first 100 picks ends up in the group for the most games played, clearly.

The points for each selection from each draft class is the final total to find which pick would be the mostly likely to succeed in the NFL.

Examples:  Andrew Luck was the 1st selection in the 2012 draft.  He has played in 70 games, is a Pro Bowler, and coincidentally is among the top 100 for games played in his draft class.  Luck is awarded 10 bonus points.  He accounts for 80 points of the final total for the #1 selections.

Then there’s Terrence Metcalf, who, was the 93rd selection in the 2002 draft.  He played in 78 games, was NOT a Pro Bowl player, but was among the top 100 in games played.  Metcalf receives 2 bonus points.  He accounts for 80 points of the final total for the 93rd selections.

Now, without further adieu, based on my ridiculous calculations and estimations here are the top 12 players most likely to succeed in the NFL.

12.  Pick #15 – Kolton Miller, Oakland Raiders

Miller is an offensive tackle that went to college at UCLA. Some other successful #15’s include:  Albert Haynesworth, Derrick Johnson, Lawrence Timmons, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Ryan Shazier.

11. Pick #2 – Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Barkley is a running back that went to college at Pennsylvania State.  Some other successful #2’s include:  Julius Peppers, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, Von Miller, and Marcus Mariota.

10.  Pick #14 – Marcus Davenport – New Orleans Saints

Davenport is a defensive end that went college at Texas – San Antonio.  Some other successful #14’s include:  Jeremy Shockey, Tommie Harris, Darrelle Revis, Malcolm Jenkins, and Earl Thomas.

9. Pick #33 – Austin Corbett – Cleveland Browns

Corbett is a center that went to college at Nevada.  Some other successful #33’s include: Jabar Gaffney, Karlos Dansby, Alan Branch, Rodger Saffold, and Landon Collins.

8.  Pick #27 – Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks

Penny is a running back that went to college at San Diego State.  Some other successful #27’s include:  Larry Johnson, Roddy White, DeAngelo Williams, Devin McCourty, and DeAndre Hopkins.

7.  Pick #18 – Jaire Alexander, Green Bay Packers

Alexander is a cornerback that went to college at Louisville.  Some other successful #18’s include:  Chad Pennington, Joe Flacco, Maurkice Pouncey, Eric Reid, and Marcus Peters.

6. Pick #1 – Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Mayfield is a quarterback that went to college at Oklahoma… incase you didn’t know.  Some other successful #1’s include: Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck.  Note a quarterback was drafted 1st overall in 2001-2005, 2007, 2009-2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018.

5.  Pick #5 – Bradley Chubb, Denver Broncos

Chubb is a defensive end that went to college at North Carolina State.  Some other successful #5’s include: LaDainian Tomlinson, Sean Taylor, Eric Berry, Patrick Peterson, and Khalil Mack.

4.  Pick #13 – Da’Ron Payne, Washington Redskins

Payne is a defensive tackle that went to college at Alabama.  Some other successful #13’s include:  John Abraham, Johnathan Stewart, Sheldon Richardson, and Aaron Donald.

3.  Pick #9 – Mike McGlinchey, San Francisco 49ers

McGlinchey is an offensive tackle that went to college at Notre Dame.  Some other successful #9’s include:  Brian Urlacher, Kevin Williams, C.J. Spiller, Tyron Smith, and Luke Kuechly.

2.  Pick #3 – Sam Darnold, New York Jets

Darnold is a quarterback that went to college at Southern California.  Some other successful #3’s include: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Joe Thomas, Matt Ryan, and dare I say…Blake Bortles(?)

1.  Pick #11 – Minkah Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins

Fitzpatrick is a free safety that went to college at Alabama.  Some other successful #11’s include: Dwight Freeney, Ben Roethlisberger, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Cutler, Patrick Willis, and JJ Watt.